Applications of the Cohort-Component Model for Structuring Housing-Unit Based Total Population Estimates into Categories of Age and Sex: A Pilot Test in New Mexico

Jack Baker, University of New Mexico
Aldemar Alcantara, University of New Mexico
Xiaomin Ruan, University of New Mexico

Housing unit-based estimates are popular, but lack a technique for estimating age/sex structure of a population. This paper evaluates the use of short-term component projections for allocating these estimates to categories of age/sex. The method is piloted for 2005 in Bernalillo County, New Mexico. The results suggest that the method will perform well where (1) population age/sex dynamics and construction trends may be assumed to be unrelated, (2) age-specific migration is well-measured, or (3) the magnitude of migration is very small. Here, the method produced estimates of population age/sex structure that matched closely with those produced by the Census Bureau using administrative records. This finding is promising because it is clear that Bernalillo County has recently experienced both significant housing unit growth as well as changes in age/sex structure. These results are discussed in light of their potential application to areas for which these conditions may not be met.

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Presented in Session 106: Sub-National Population Estimates and Projections